The Uncertain Cuban Transition

The desire for revenge and the will. of regeneration. In his latest and most successful novel. the Cuban Leonardo Padurait captures precisely this wide internal and external range of post-Castroism. not free from personal contradictions and incompatibilities of collective projects. Despite what has happened in the contemporary history of the island. the economy and international interests will end up being the decisive elements for its future. In terms of foreign influences. Cuba has lost pre-eminence on the global agenda. even for the United States. Unlike Republicans who maintain a fruitful symbiosis with the Florida-based island lobby .

Joe Biden ‘s administration has other hot potatoes both internally ( Black Lives Matter . post-covid recovery. infrastructure plan ) as external (Russia. China. Venezuela…). In addition. as Juan González . one of his main advisers. recalls . the current president “is notBarack Obama ”and the door open during his tenure is unlikely to reopen . Even more compelling is Peter Hakim . president emeritus of the Inter-American Dialogue. “Cuba. short and short. is no longer a big problem for the United States . Barack Obama and Raúl Castro in Cuba in 2016 (AFP) Next steps In fact. for the future of Cuba . economic evolution and. in return. its political and social derivatives will undoubtedly be more important.

The Leaders Led By

The current president Miguel Díaz-Canel are forced to Austria phone numbers the current rate of liberalization. after four years of stagnation. with a contraction of 11% during 2020 . As Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz would have acknowledged : ” the people do not eat plans .” But this forced opening needs to avoid the dangers of a social rift. the possible resistance of the old guard and. at the same time. attract enough foreign investment with some control over its economic. social and environmental effects. Author: Joris Visser (Unsplash) With a massive return to Cuban emigration virtually ruled out. with its large neighbor busy in its own affairs and with Pan American organizations too weakened. the Caribbean island can hardly carry out the necessary reforms and investments on its own to join.

Austria Phone Numbers

The globalized market and not become a failed country or suffer dictatorial involutions. Without excluding a future Chinese interest that would place Cuba again as a pawn between superpowers. it is most plausible to predict an intense tertiarization of its economy by tourism and. given the geopolitical conditions. second homes. congresses . etc.. as long as the post-covid world allows. And to talk about the fragility of countries dependent on economic sectors based on massive and low-skilled labor and with tourism strategies focused on overcrowding and low prices. it may not be necessary to go to Cuba. says historian Jaume Claret Some Spanish interests The big Spanish hotel chains – and significantly the Mallorcan ones – can play a major role in this tourist bet.

These Investments Were

Conditioned by the regulations of Castroism. with concessions and share percentages set by the government. These obstacles have not prevented a high economic performance and a growing business commitment. Thus. in 2019. chains such as Meliá and Iberostar extended their concessions. Over time and increased their shareholdings from 25 to 35% . To some extent. the continuity and evolution of post-Castroism. Will depend on the ability to generate wealth and well-being among broad layers of the population. Successful Chinese state capitalism. Capable of combining economic modernization with political control.

Is both a tempting and unhelpful reference for an island that has no market. no industry. No resources comparable to of the Asian giant. But putting all the eggs in the tourist. Basket exposes you to unforeseen weather. epidemiological disruptions. The discretion of tastes and the dependence of a few wholesalers. And to talk about the fragility of countries dependent on economic. Sectors based on massive and low-skilled labor and with tourism strategies focused on overcrowding and low prices. It may not be necessary to go as far asCuba .

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